Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt

The Siwa region located in the Western Desert of Egypt has 30,000 acres available for reclamation as a part national project to increase agricultural production. This study addressed climate change-driven long-term concerns developing an this where groundwater from non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is only source water. Different models were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs); RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Projected seasonal temperatures show that maximum summer 1.68 ± 1.64 °C 2060 4.65 1.82 2100 8.5, respectively. water requirement crops estimated around 6–8.1% while 9.7–18.2% Maximum reductions strategic crop yields vary 2.9% 12.8% 4.5, 10.4% 27.4% Project goals are feasible until but 2080 with When optimization analysis was conducted, these possible by modified land allocation. proposed methodology useful impact change anywhere such management adaptation options can be sustainable development.